As good as it gets (for Kenny)

Ahead of tonight’s speech by Enda Kenny, Cian at Irish Election had the most salient analysis of the Fine Gael leader’s task:

Kenny tonight has a huge task to prove he can converse with the ISME voter, the person with whom Fine Gael want to be associated… Kenny is the dealbreaker. His performance tonight is a barometer of whether the party is moving toward power or standing in the midst of a dervish, unmoving while all around them are in flux. If he doesn’t pull it off Lucinda will be the tip of the iceberg.

I think we can safely say that Kenny did as much as he could tonight to seal the deal with voters, particularly small business owners and out-of-work professionals and ABC1s – what Cian termed ‘ISME voters’.

No income tax increases and the abolition of employers’ PSRI for every new job created should play to that section of the electorate. He also reiterated other populist initiatives announced by FG in recent weeks, such as reducing the number of junior ministers from 20 to 12. Of course, he hammered home the ‘jobs, jobs, jobs’ theme – 100,000 to be created by the end of 2013. All that will go down well with the ISMEs.

But his the delivery of the speech is worth a mention. Such things are important – especially for Enda Kenny, who has always appeared wooden on television and in formal addresses. Tonight he performed to his best, which still wouldn’t touch Gilmore and Cowen on their good days but, hey, FG weren’t expecting miracles. For him, this is as good as it gets. Kenny has positioned himself well to look like an alternative leader amid the turbulence of the week ahead.

One final point: the Fine Gael membership were really up for it this weekend. This evening leader’s speech and warm-up acts received a rake of spontaneous rounds of applause and standing ovations – something I didn’t see at any other conference  this season. The TDs sitting behind Kenny were faster than ever in reaching his lapels at the finish. (Election hopeful Pascal Donohue literally ran to his side.) In contrast, Labour seemed serious and subdued last week. As Michael Ring said in his prelude speech that nearly brought the house down: they can “smell power”.

FG in City West: the weekend ahead

Greetings from the Fine Gael Ard Fheis at Chez Mansfield in Saggart. Kenny’s opening speech contained the usual pep about the party’s team of candidates heading into the local and European elections. 75 local candidates are under 35 years of age. Kenny also boasted that one in five candidates are women, which doesn’t seem like something to boast about but such is the low level of participation by women in Irish politics.

But Kenny didn’t spend long bigging up his own party and swiftly moved to attacking Fianna Fáil for its mismanagement of the economy and not forseeing the current turmoil.

However, his main theme this evening was the health service.

Latest poll

Something of a downer for Labour on the day that’s in it. Tomorrow’s Red C / Sunday Business Post poll:

FG 31 (+1)
FF 28 (+5)
Lab 17 (-5)
SF 7 (-4)
Green 7 (+1)
Others 10 (+2)

Cowen doesn’t get his half mill

Given the seriousness of our economic situation, there was some speculation around City West on Saturday that the television audience for Cowen’s speech to the Soldiers (his fourth ‘State of the Nation,’ as it were) might break the 500,000 mark. In the event he pulled in 375,000.

That amounts to a decent 24.6% of the audience at that time. I suppose expecting the half mill was wishful thinking on a day when 1 million viewers had already watched a rugby match. Many of the viewers at home probably had their fill of TV for the day, while the pub audience would have moved on to a higher state of enlightenment by half past eight.

RTÉ also tell me that 88,000 watched Gerry Adams’ speech at the Sinn Féin Ard Fheis the previous Saturday (10.9% of the audience). I reckon it’s time Sinn Féin move to the 8.30-9pm slot – not many are able for the 50 minute-long political speech these days.

Cowen’s audience was well above the 263,000 (16.6%) who watched Kenny’s speech in November (though that was a Fine Gael ‘national conference’ and not a fully-fledged Ard Fheis), and also way past the 246,000 (14.6%) who watched Gilmore’s address to the Labour faithful at a ’special delegate conference’ later that month.

Latest poll

The FF slump continues. Labour on the rise. In tomorrow’s Sunday Business Post:

FG 30% (-3)
FF 23% (-5)
LAB 22% (+8)
GRN 6% (-2)
SF 11% (+2)
Ind 8%

Via Irish Election

Trying to appear calm

Taking a leaf out of someone else’s book, Fine Gael are making a concerted effort to present their leader as a responsible and reassuring figure in these uncertain times. It marks a change of direction from the JFK-quoting, cocky personality who has lead the party for six years.

Latest poll

Sunday Business Post-Red C poll to be published tomorrow:
If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?

Fianna Fáil 30% (+4)
Fine Gael 35% (+2)
Labour 14% (-1)
Greens 5% (-1)
Sinn Féin 8% (-2)
Independent 8% (no change)

It’s the first poll without the PDs, and Fine Gael seem to have benefited most as Fianna Fáil were always going to bounce back a little after last month’s new low for them.

Great expectations

Without anybody saying it, there were high expectations for Richard Bruton’s address on the economy. When the time came, he received a standing ovation as he arrived at the podium. You can read that two ways: 1) This is a carefully stage-managed event – especially when RTÉ 1 is carrying a live feed from the main hall – so you’d expect the crowd to be enthusiastic, or 2) this event is so stage-managed that the powers that be wouldn’t plan to have an ovation for Bruton and not for the other speakers. Anyway, it seemed to be spontaneous and Bruton has been flavour of the month because of the budget. Why does it matter? Because of that poll and the fact that Kenny will be judged on his next local election results. Bruton might be asked to take the reins.

Brian Hayes has an idea

Is it not unreasonable to ask graduates to pay a contribution, deductible at source, for a number of years after they enter the labour force? One way of making a contribution could be through the existing PRSI system, it’s only one option to consider. Paying a small proportion of your income over a period after you graduate, although difficult to sell, would in my view be a fairer solution to this issue. There are many ways you could do this. Whatever system you put in place needs to be clear, straightforward and above all else encourages students to stay in college.

He says such a funding arrangement can only follow education reforms at third level, including: more  rigorous assessment of quality in teaching,  improve supports for students from poorer backgrounds, more collaboration between our colleges, longer student-lecturer contact hours, and a greater focus on the skills required by the labour force.

He’s right on at least one point: it will be difficult to sell.

Off to Wexford

I’m off to Wexford this weekend to see the Fine Gael faithful huddle around “the future Taoiseach” at their national conference. Unlike an Ard Fheis, there will be no motions to vote on at this event. Instead it’s intended to showcase the party’s frontbench ‘of all the talents’. Enda Kenny has already told the grassroots to be ready for a general election but the real focus will be on preparations for the local elections in June, where Fine Gael expect to do well.

This is my first ever party conference so excuse my naiveté if I come home convinced by the reception for the leader’s speech that a ‘blue tide’ is imminent.

Also, I know you’re thinking ‘what’s the point?’ It’s true that no policy of consequence is decided at these stage-managed events but there are some useful details to be observed. Here’s what I’ll be watching out for this weekend: